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Recently Closed Positions:
Current MPY: 2.4%
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Issue: 12, December 2009
Today: NBG, UNG, GLD)
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Day Play:
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3-Day Play:
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Longer:
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Commentary:
Frankly, we've been missing the opportunities lately. We've discussed and determined that our sell-early strategy simply has limited upside in a such a volatile market. The current conditions are unprecedented, so adjusting would be a dangerous move. So long as we continue to see positive returns we won't likely change the strategy, but we are looking for tweaks.
One tweak is to put more effort into identifying great opportunities like we've seen with NBG. Our strategy works wonders with movement like this fund, which may well swing between $5 and $6 for months. All while providing a significant upside on a weak dollar.
Unfortunately, it takes so much research to find a gem like this that we miss dozens of others, perhaps with more potential.
Finally, underestimating the upside has hurt us. UNG and NBG are two of the very few examples where we continue to find entries. Usually thanks to doomsday sayers and erratic rumor mongering. When a fund makes a strong climb we have no reliable entry strategies. We saw this with AAPL and more recently with POT. We suggested both for long term, took over 10% profit on each, and never found another entry.
In short, a sideways market is best for this strategy and we simply don't have that now. The DOW may appear to trade steadily but individual funds are currently erratic. It may well be a sign of instability to come.
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Daily or Weekly BS!
While the DOW seems to make good gains, underlying funds are all over the board. There is terrible volatility, both in climbs and falls. MSFT is a rare example of one of the most solid companies of all time. It is also one of the very few stable price points. BUYER BEWARE. State-side securities are demonstrating extreme volatility. Don't fret over missed upside, be happy when you miss downside.
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